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20120925
20121003
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at this moment, president obama can count on 243 electoral votes, just 27 shy of the 270 needed to win. romney meanwhile can bank on 191, that leaves 104 votes up for grabs in just eight states, florida, nevada, colorado, wisconsin, ohio, virginia, north carolina, and new hampshire. to win romney would need to win a majority of those battlegrounds and according to recent opinion polls in those states the president is leading or statistically tied with romney, one reason why nate silver's trustee ma mathematical models are predicting november 6th could be a good night for team op puts the president's chances of winning at 86% and mitt romney's a meager 14%. insert romney frowny face here. it is really this buttoned up? i want to go deep into the nate silver mind chamber on this block. it is -- i mean that's a pretty big gap there, 86 to 14. let's speak electorally here. >> sure. >> you're pegging obama with 320.1 electoral votes, up nearly 11 in the last couple weeks or last week, romney at 217.9. 320 is a lot of electoral votes. that would be i think a mandate. >> so -- well i don't know if i
to get 243 electoral votes to romney's 191. with eight tossup states. obama win in ohio with its 18 electoral votes would put him at 261 electoral votes, that is just nine away from winning re-election. surprising exactly no one ohio has been a top focus for candidates. while governor romney logged 17 trips to the state this election cycle president obama is making his 13th visit this year alone. earlier this month the democratic ticket made clear just how much ohio means to them. >> if we win ohio, we win the election. >> if we win toledo, we will win ohio. and if we win ohio we'll win this election. >> john heilemann, there has been no shortage of love for the state of ohio this election cycle. president obama and mitt romney both speaking at 1:05 today. i wonder your take on the state it's interesting when you look at the dynamics economically at play in ohio. governor cakasic's great job of sheparding the ohio economy to account for state unemployment 7.2%, lower than the national average, it also undercuts mitt romney's message this economy isn't in turn around and time to get
to people that things are bad and thus you're going to vote for the other guy at this point? >> it's really a question of which message is really resonating and in ohio and a lot of these states. in ohio particularly the obama team has pushed the auto rescue, there are a lot of jobs in ohio that were saved by that, and they see that as one of the reasons he's doing so well. the romney team is pushing energy and they still see a vulnerability with coal, for example, but the polls are showing that the auto issue is helping obama certainly more than this energy issue seems to be helping romney. >> it feels like when we look at the number of things both structurally and in terms of the campaign, a real rhee election for president obama is in certain ways overdetermined by the models. it's not the absolute level of economic suffering, it's where, you know, how people feel about how things are going, it's about things moving in the right direction. you have an incumbent versus someone not a current office holder. there's a lot of things that overdetermine the likelihood of president obama winning
Search Results 0 to 4 of about 5 (some duplicates have been removed)

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